Nearly two-thirds of United’s derby goals came late in the latest ten meetings

Manchester United scored 11 goals in the ten most recent Premier League Manchester derbies against City. Seven came from the 76th minute onwards, meaning 63.6 per cent arrived in the closing stages.

The contrast with the previous ten meetings is striking. United scored 12 goals in that period, but only one came after the 75th minute.

The calculations come from FootyCabin’s corrected 20-match derby dataset, covering September 2016 to January 2026.

The same output, a very different clock

United’s scoring rate has barely changed between the two periods. Their total fell from 12 goals to 11, but the share scored late increased by 55.3 percentage points.

The wider derby has also become more open in its closing phase. Seven of the latest ten meetings contained a goal after the 75th minute, compared with three of the previous ten. Late goals accounted for 32.4 per cent of all goals in the latest period, up from 12.5 per cent in the earlier one.

That does not establish a single tactical cause, and the sample is too small to demonstrate a smooth year-by-year trend. It does show that the final quarter-hour has become far more important to United’s derby scoring record.

Three comebacks changed the script

United have also produced three of the four comeback victories in the 20-match sample.

In April 2018, they overturned a 2–0 deficit at the Etihad to win 3–2 through goals from Paul Pogba and Chris Smalling. The Premier League’s match report confirms the result and goal sequence.

In January 2023, Jack Grealish gave City the lead before Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford scored in the 78th and 82nd minutes. The Manchester City’s official report records the 2–1 turnaround.

The latest example came in December 2024. Joško Gvardiol put City ahead, but Fernandes equalised from the penalty spot in the 88th minute before Amad Diallo scored in the 90th. The City’s official match report confirms the late comeback.

The first goal remains highly significant: the team scoring first won 13 of the 17 derbies in which a goal was scored, or 76.5 per cent. But United supplied three of the four exceptions.

The defensible conclusion is therefore narrower than calling United guaranteed late specialists. Their derby goals have become markedly later, and their comeback record means a City lead has not always settled the contest.